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Gartner and the hyped hype cycle

It’s not exactly a secret that I have issues with Gartner and their hype cycle. When I was at IBM Research it would drive me crazy when someone would quote Gartner to try to prove that some technology or other was important. To summarize: since all Gartner really does it ask a bunch of technology companies what they think is next, quoting Gartner at a technology company doesn’t prove anything. You’re really just going with the group think du jour.

Having done my PhD studying virtual reality and 3D interaction, I tend to regard their hype cycle as particularly laughable. Lots of technologies, like VR, go around and around the circle (funny how Gartner draws their cycle as a line, as if technologies always progress from start to finish along it) from inflated expectations to disillusionment without going further. Depending on how you count, VR is on roughly the 4th cycle, and based on the job changes I see from folks I know at Facebook the current hype is dying down pretty quickly. Still other technologies are a flash in the pan, being hyped once and vanishing altogether.

And yet somehow the much hyped hype cycle endures, people quickly forgetting what last year’s predictions were in the excitement over what technologies might be about to break through on this cycle. So it was refreshing to see someone go back and look through all of the hype cycles published since 1995 to see how they fared. Short version: not well. Color me shocked.

TiVo suckiness and eero awesomeness

We replaced our old TiVo a month or so back. The previous one had lasted forever (I’m pretty sure we got it around 2009), but it was starting to experience playback issues and at this point I’m pretty sure we got our money’s worth out of it. So I went ahead and ordered a TiVo BOLT.

Previously I’ve had really good experiences with both TiVo hardware and software (witness the previous TiVo that lasted forever in technology-years). But the BOLT setup experience was awful. It’s much more dependent on network access than our old model, and its feedback when errors is downright awful. Its customer service has seriously gone downhill as well.

The problems started when first setting up the device. During setup it successfully connected to our wireless network, but then it kept complaining that our network must be firewalling it’s access to TiVo’s servers. Except, nope, no firewall. I both checked the router and confirmed with Comcast. A call to TiVo’s customer support was useless: they kept wanting me to access the network settings on the TiVo home screen, except that I couldn’t complete setup to access the home screen because setup requires a successful network connection. Great design, TiVo! I gave up on that rep and tried another, and ended up in the same place. Clearly TiVo is now outsourcing their customer service to a low cost provider (I’m guessing India based on the accents) and providing a useless trouble-shooting script where reps have no idea how to help if a problem falls outside that script.

I should mention at this point that our previous TiVo had been connecting to our wireless network for years in the same spot with zero problems. And WiFi was clearly more of an afterthought for it: we started out with a phone connection for it to download program information (told you it was old), and bought the external WiFi connector for it a couple of years after getting the box. So I was pretty sure the issue was not our network.

Finally I gave up, dug out an old TV, and set up the TiVo box right next to our router with a hardline connection. Now I managed to complete setup, and after installing a software update I managed to get a wireless connection working as well. One small problem: the wireless radio in the BOLT clearly sucks. It could establish a solid connection only over very short distances and with a clear line of sight to the router. Put it back where the old TiVo was, and suddenly it started dropping the connection (and complaining about being firewalled) 80-90% of the time.

I will admit that our router is not the most technically advanced. For the last few years we’ve just been using our Comcast cable modem to provide WiFi. Yeah, it’s not the greatest, but it’s been good enough. Our TV and a Mac mini connect to our WiFi in that same spot without problem, and our mobile devices don’t have any issues in that room. At this point I gave up in frustration and, after playing around a bit with our router’s channel assignments, decided to just live with the sucky connection. It was a close call, though; I almost decided to give up on TiVo, return the damn thing, and just make do with live TV and streaming (our consumption of recorded content had been declining for years anyway).

Use of a BOLT with an unreliable network connection, however, is a death of 1,000 cuts. Remember how I mentioned that the BOLT is more dependent on a network connection than our old TiVo? Yeah, apparently TiVo no longer believes in caching data. Which is kind of ironic given how much more space the latest boxes have to cache data. The BOLT will download and use scheduling data, but program details are pretty much all accessed on the fly. Want to search for a show to set up a pass or record it? Requires a network connection. Want to look at a program’s details to tell it to record or give it a thumbs up? Network connection (ok, from some-but-not-all screens).

I’d been curious about setting up a mesh network in our home for awhile; in general our wireless worked ok, but connections had always been a bit slow in the back bedrooms. And I’d heard good things both about the setup experience and WiFi quality of the eero. After putting up with the lousy TiVo connectivity for a month or so, I finally caved and ordered a base station and two beacons from Amazon.

The eero definitely earns the praise it’s received for it’s simple set-up process. Install the mobile app, plug the base station into your cable modem, specify the name you want for your network, and you’re off. The app connects to the base station automatically for you, so there’s no need to open up a browser and type in the IP address of your router. And the app and base station had WiFi up and running within a minute or two with essentially no additional work on part.

Setting up the beacons was similarly easy. Plug one in (I’m amused that the beacons also double as night lights), wait for the app to detect it, then have the eero test the connectivity to the beacon. If the connection is good you’re done, otherwise the app recommends how to reposition the beacon. I had one placement work right away, while I had to reposition the second beacon once before the app was satisfied with its placement.

The eero also makes updating easy. The app notified me of an available update, and with one tap the eero downloaded and installed the update.

Since getting the eero, our network has been noticeably faster and the coverage is significantly better. The BOLT now has a reliable connection. The bedrooms get a strong connection. I’ve noticed two cases where walking around the house while using the network caused short hitches (presumably from transitioning between the beacon coverage zones), but in both cases the connection quickly resumed.

After living with it for a week, I’d say that, while the eero is more expensive than other mesh networking offerings, the ease of use and reliability it offers has made it worth the price of admission so far. And the obvious care and attention that went into the design and implementation of the setup experience is orders of magnitude better than TiVo’s latest setup experience.

Glance and done for wearables

Besides activity tracking, the other thing smart watches are really useful for is keeping track of notifications. Feel (or hear) an incoming notification, glance to see what it’s about, then get on with what you were doing (or interrupt what you were doing to handle the interrupt). For email, though, I want one additional step. I can usually tell just from the sender, subject, and first couple of lines of a message whether it’s something I want to handle (either immediately or later) or immediately delete. And it’s surprising to me that current watches still often make the latter more difficult than it needs to be.

The Apple Watch is, frankly, bad at supporting fast delete of email messages. If you want to delete a message, you need to scroll all the way to the bottom of the notification to access the option to delete it. Maybe the watchOS developers need to read an entire message to decide whether they should delete it, but I don’t. If they want to keep swiping left to access a Clear option (I’d happily trade it for delete), how about letting me swipe right to delete? Pull down on the message to reveal a delete option? Either would be way faster.

Samsung’s Gear watches provide access to fast delete if it’s available as an action on the notification. So you can quickly delete a Gmail message with two taps: tap on the side to open the menu, then tap delete. But for reasons that escape me, delete is not available as an option for messages received with the built-in email application. Which Samsug provides. So, y’know, they could very easily address the lack. And they should.

Maybe they’re both leaving it as a new feature to call out for future software releases. Here’s hoping.

Auto-detecting vs. manually tracking activities

In order to keep tabs on both the iOS and Android ecosystems, I split my time between a Galaxy Note 5 + Gear S3 and an iPhone 7 Plus (yes, I like larger phones) + Apple Watch. I also bike to work daily and like to keep track of my rides (why is somewhat of an open question; it’s not like I’m trying to set speed records or anything).

The Gear S3 and Apple Watch have different philosophies for how to track my activities. The Apple Watch expects me to track all my workouts manually. Want to track a ride to or from work? You’ve got to manually start tracking the workout before you leave. And you’ve got to remember to stop it once you arrive at your destination. The failure modes are obvious: get thinking about something else (maybe a technical challenge you’re working on) and forget to start tracking, and your workout doesn’t exist. Or forget to stop tracking, and suddenly your ride home is twice its actual time.

The Gear S3 has a different philosophy. You can still start and stop tracking a workout manually, but the Gear S3 will also detect when you’ve started a workout and initiate tracking for you. And it’s pretty reliable: I can’t think of a single time that the watch has failed to detect when I start cycling, or when it’s thought I was cycling when I wasn’t (false positives and negatives, for those of you playing along at home). No more need to remember to start tracking your workout. The Gear S3 will also detect when the workout has ended and stop tracking for you. And that’s where it gets a little sticky. The watch doesn’t want to end the workout just because you’ve stopped moving; you might be stopped at a traffic light on a ride. So it typically takes it a minute or two before it decides you’ve really stopped your workout. It does try to then calculate back to determine when the workout really ended, but it’s still often off by a minute or so.

What I really want is a hybrid behavior. Autodetect the start of a workout; that’s really useful. But provide a manual method to stop a detected workout (as well as an autodetecting the end; that’s useful in case I forget). Strangely the Gear S3 doesn’t currently provide a way to manually end an autodetected workout, even though you can manually stop a workout you start yourself. With that one simple addition, the Gear S3 would provide workout tracking that I’d strongly prefer to Apple’s purely manual approach.

Of course, that’s for my commute ride. For running, I like the Apple Watch more than the Gear S3. That’s largely a size / weight issue, though. I helped out with some user tests of the Gear Fit 2, and it was actually better than both for comfort while running. But for general use I prefer the watch form factor.

So there you have it: human + AI would beat human alone and AI alone for tracking workouts. But then, I’ve long argued that AI + HCI can be better than either alone.

Back

It’s been over 4 years since I blogged on this site. Part of that is just being busy, with both work and personal life. Part of it is also caution. The work I do for the Think Tank Team is highly confidental, and since my thoughts on technology are often wrapped up with what I’m working on I didn’t want to potentially cross any boundaries.

But I’ve started to miss writing (although not academic paper writing; I’m so glad I don’t do that anymore), so I thought I’d try to get back into it and see how it goes. Let’s see, shall we?

Kindle Serials

I’ve been reading two different Kindle Serials for the past week or so. A Kindle Serial is, in essence, a story published as a series of episodes; you buy the serial up front (they tend to be cheap; $1.99 seems to be the standard price) and then episodes automagically show up every couple of weeks as the author writes them. They harken back to old newspaper serials such as The Three Musketeers or The Count of Monte Cristo.

While I like the theory behind bringing back serialized novels (it seems like fun, right? Get new sections of the story delivered regularly, building suspense as you wait for each new episode), in practice I have to confess they’re not as fun as I thought. Two reasons. One, I’m an impatient bastard and don’t like waiting. That wouldn’t be a major issue by itself, but the second reason is that I’ve usually always got a backlog of things I want to read. If I run out of episodes for a Serial I’ll switch to reading something else while waiting for the next episode. And when the next episode arrives I’ll probably be deep in that new book and it won’t be a good time to switch back to the Serial. So it’ll be awhile before I get back to it, at which point I may have forgotten some of the details for what was going on.

In short, I suspect Serials worked better when people didn’t have such easy access to so many great things to read. Good for the 1800s, problematic for today. I’ll finish out these two Serials, but I suspect I won’t buy any new ones. Unless I get them right before the last episode or two, at which point they might be complete by the time I near the end.

Fast delete would be awesome for Pebble

I posted my review of the Pebble watch two weeks ago. In my review I indicated that it would be nice if the Pebble gave you quick way to respond to notifications (“Ok”, “Busy”, etc.). But after a couple more weeks of living with the watch the two actions I really want to be able to take on email notifications are:

  1. Dismiss notification (which we currently have)
  2. Delete email message

Turns out that I get a fair number of email addresses where I can determine right from the watch notification whether I need to actually read the message later or whether I can delete it without looking at it further. Right now the latter case, which is more of my email than I expected, requires acknowledging the notification on the watch and then later deleting the message on my phone. One touch delete from the phone on email message notifications would save me a bunch of follow-up work. Hopefully they’ll include that ability in a future update.